CAR Goes to the Polls as Incumbent Pursues a Third Mandate

On Sunday, the Central African Republic will hold a significant series of four votes, including the presidency, national assembly, and municipal seats.

A Competitive Presidential Field

A field of seven contenders are vying for the top office, including former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. Both men were cleared to run by the constitutional court after being initially barred. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the last two elections, while Dondra had a short tenure under the incumbent.

Opposition Hopes and Voter Frustrations

The challengers aims to tap into widespread frustration in a nation where violence remains a constant threat. More than half a million people are internally displaced, with a comparable figure living as exiles in bordering states.

"This represents an chance to commend the remarkable recovery of the country," said a senior UN diplomat, though he added that challenges remain.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a one-time academic, is largely predicted to extend his run. He first entered politics in 2008 when appointed prime minister, serving until a rebel coalition overthrew the government in 2013, sparking a civil war.

After a turbulent three-year interim, his perceived impartiality from the warring factions fueled his second-round victory in 2016.

Election Risks and Logistical Hurdles

There are fears that logistical problems and insecurity could disrupt the vote, especially in rural areas. The UN stabilization force, Minusca, is providing security and logistical support that the state's crumbling infrastructure is unable to provide.

Further issues involve the voter list being published only online, a significant barrier in a nation with scarce online access. These irregularities have prompted an electoral boycott and could, as noted by analysts, "disenfranchise large segments of the population."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents worry that another term for Touadéra—made possible by a 2023 constitutional referendum that scrapped term limits and extended mandates—would entail expanded sway for outside interests.

The president has put faith in the Russian mercenary group Wagner for personal security, and despite its founder's death, has resisted calls to fold its fighters into a successor entity. Meanwhile, Rwanda has taken a different approach, focusing on commercial interests within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Allegations have claimed the government evicted its own soldiers from a internationally financed facility to make way for a Rwandan agricultural project. A pro-opposition commentary accused the leadership of being "intent on dispose of the country bit by bit."

Amid a recent peace accord with armed factions offering a glimmer of calm, the election moves forward under a shadow of uncertainty and geopolitical competition.