Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Figures

The average count of daily murders each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh official statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have warned that homicide numbers might not signal enhanced national stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the lowest number of homicides were registered for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly military operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The main pillars of the President's security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that relying on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for gauging the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it may mask days when there were especially spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to create a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.