Irish Unification Plebiscite Should Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Caution

Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."