Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.